Keynesian Autopsy: Part 3- Keynesian Ascendency

 

Keynesian Theory In the 1930s

In his book, The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money and other works, Keynes argued against his construction of classical theory, that during recessions business pessimism and certain characteristics of market economies would exacerbate economic weakness and cause aggregate demand to plunge further.

For example, Keynesian economics disputes the notion held by some economists that lower wages can restore full employment because labor demand curves slope downward like any other normal demand curve. Instead he argued that employers will not add employees to produce goods that cannot be sold because demand for their products is weak. Similarly, poor business conditions may cause companies to reduce capital investment, rather than take advantage of lower prices to invest in new plants and equipment. This would also have the effect of reducing overall expenditures and employment. 

Keynesian Economics and the Great Depression

Keynesian economics is sometimes referred to as "depression economics," as Keynes's General Theory was written during a time of deep depression not only in his native land of the United Kingdom but worldwide. The famous 1936 book was informed by Keynes’s understanding of events arising during the Great Depression, which Keynes believed could not be explained by classical economic theory as he portrayed it in his book.

Other economists had argued that in the wake of any widespread downturn in the economy, businesses and investors taking advantage of lower input prices in pursuit of their own self-interest would return output and prices to a state of equilibrium, unless otherwise prevented from doing so. Keynes believed that the Great Depression seemed to counter this theory. Output was low and unemployment remained high during this time. The Great Depression inspired Keynes to think differently about the nature of the economy. From these theories, he established real-world applications that could have implications for a society in economic crisis.

Keynes rejected the idea that the economy would return to a natural state of equilibrium. Instead, he argued that once an economic downturn sets in, for whatever reason, the fear and gloom that it engenders among businesses and investors will tend to become self-fulfilling and can lead to a sustained period of depressed economic activity and unemployment. In response to this, Keynes advocated a countercyclical fiscal policy in which, during periods of economic woe, the government should undertake deficit spending to make up for the decline in investment and boost consumer spending in order to stabilize aggregate demand.

Keynes was highly critical of the British government at the time. The government greatly increased welfare spending and raised taxes to balance the national books. Keynes said this would not encourage people to spend their money, thereby leaving the economy unstimulated and unable to recover and return to a successful state. Instead, he proposed that the government spend more money and cut taxes to turn a budget deficit, which would increase consumer demand in the economy. This would, in turn, lead to an increase in overall economic activity and a reduction in unemployment.

Keynes also criticized the idea of excessive saving, unless it was for a specific purpose such as retirement or education. He saw it as dangerous for the economy because the more money sitting stagnant, the less money in the economy stimulating growth. This was another of Keynes's theories geared toward preventing deep economic depressions.

Many economists have criticized Keynes's approach. They argue that businesses responding to economic incentives will tend to return the economy to a state of equilibrium unless the government prevents them from doing so by interfering with prices and wages, making it appear as though the market is self-regulating. On the other hand, Keynes, who was writing while the world was mired in a period of deep economic depression, was not as optimistic about the natural equilibrium of the market. He believed the government was in a better position than market forces when it came to creating a robust economy.